Could Boris Johnson Return To Power? A Tory Party Resurgence?

Luna Greco

5 min read

Post on May 03, 2025

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Johnson's Remaining Popularity and Support Base

While his premiership ended in scandal, Boris Johnson retains a significant level of support within specific segments of the electorate. This enduring popularity, coupled with the current government's struggles, fuels speculation about a potential return.

The "Boris Bounce" Phenomenon

Throughout his career, Johnson has exhibited a remarkable ability to recover from political setbacks, experiencing temporary surges in public approval even after major controversies. This "Boris Bounce" phenomenon is a key element in understanding his potential for a comeback.

• Brexit: Despite the complexities and criticisms surrounding his handling of Brexit, a segment of the population consistently credits him with "getting Brexit done." Polls following major Brexit developments often showed a temporary rise in his approval ratings.
• COVID-19 Pandemic: While his government faced criticism regarding its pandemic response, his initial communication and leadership style resonated with some voters. Specific instances like the initial lockdown announcements saw temporary boosts in his popularity.
• Social Media Presence: Johnson maintains a strong online presence, consistently engaging with supporters on social media platforms. This direct communication bypasses traditional media filters and allows him to cultivate a loyal following.

This continued influence, especially within specific demographic groups (e.g., older voters, those in less affluent areas), forms a critical base for any future political ambitions.

Weaknesses of the Current Conservative Leadership

Rishi Sunak's leadership faces significant challenges. His approval ratings lag behind those Johnson achieved during similar periods, and the current government grapples with various economic and social issues.

• Cost of Living Crisis: The ongoing cost of living crisis significantly impacts public opinion, and the government's response has been met with considerable criticism.
• Falling Poll Numbers: Conservative polling numbers consistently lag behind the Labour Party, raising concerns about their chances in the next general election.
• Policy Differences: Sunak's approach to economic policy differs significantly from Johnson's more populist style, potentially alienating parts of the Conservative base.

These weaknesses create an opening for a potential Johnson return, offering a viable alternative for some within the party and electorate who yearn for a more charismatic and outwardly confident leader.

Potential Scenarios for a Tory Party Resurgence

Several scenarios could lead to a Tory resurgence under Boris Johnson's leadership.

A Leadership Challenge

A leadership challenge remains a plausible pathway for Johnson's return. The rules governing such challenges within the Conservative Party are complex, requiring a certain threshold of support from MPs.

• 1922 Committee: The 1922 Committee, a group of backbench Conservative MPs, plays a key role in triggering and managing leadership contests. Their actions will be crucial in determining the feasibility of a challenge.
• MP Support: Securing the necessary level of support among MPs remains a significant hurdle, requiring a considerable shift in loyalty within the party.
• Consequences: A successful challenge would likely trigger significant political instability and uncertainty.

A General Election Trigger

A snap general election could offer Johnson an alternative route back to power. The Conservatives' current standing in the polls is a major factor.

• Current Polling Data: Analysis of current polling data suggests a considerable gap between the Conservatives and Labour.
• Election Strategies: Johnson's populist appeal and experience in winning elections could provide a significant advantage.
• Voter Behaviour: Factors such as economic conditions, public sentiment regarding the government's performance, and the impact of any potential scandals will influence voter behaviour.

Winning a general election would represent a significant resurgence for the Conservative party.

Obstacles to a Johnson Comeback

Despite his enduring popularity and the current government's struggles, significant obstacles hinder a Johnson comeback.

Lingering Controversies and Scandals

Several unresolved controversies and ongoing investigations could damage Johnson's political prospects.

• Partygate: The "Partygate" scandal, involving allegations of parties held at Downing Street during COVID-19 lockdowns, continues to cast a shadow over his political career.
• Privileges Committee Report: The findings of the Privileges Committee investigation into whether Johnson misled Parliament regarding Partygate remain a significant potential hurdle.
• Media Scrutiny: The media’s ongoing coverage of these controversies could significantly impact public perception.

These unresolved issues pose a major challenge to his chances of a successful return to power.

Fractured Conservative Party

Deep divisions within the Conservative Party could prevent a unified push behind Johnson.

• Opposition from Key Figures: Prominent figures within the party openly oppose his return.
• Party Unity: Reuniting the fractured party behind his leadership would be a substantial task.
• Factions within the Party: Different factions within the party hold conflicting political views and ambitions, making consensus challenging to achieve.

Overcoming these internal divisions is crucial for any successful attempt at a comeback.

Conclusion

The possibility of a Boris Johnson return and a subsequent Tory resurgence is a complex and evolving situation. While his lingering popularity and the weaknesses of the current leadership provide opportunities, significant challenges remain, including lingering controversies and deep internal divisions within the Conservative Party. The interplay of these factors will ultimately determine whether a Boris Johnson comeback is feasible and whether it truly signals a Tory party resurgence. To stay informed, continue following the latest news and analysis on Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party.